Yikes!
Sent to you by LCLS Team via Google Reader: What Happens When Summer's
Predicted Big Hurricanes Meet the Oil Slick via GOOD by Ben Jervey on
5/28/10
Even though it looks like we've totally figured this Gulf spill thing
out (kidding!), I fear that the story of the Deepwater Horizon is still
only in the second act. As if Gulf residents need anything else to be
worried about at the moment, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration announced yesterday that this hurricane season (which
officially starts next Tuesday) is likely to be "active to extremely
active," comparing it to the 2005 season that produced Hurricanes
Katrina and Rita.
Greg Holland, a tropical meteorology expert at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research in Boulder, gave this none-too-encouraging
assessment: "We have a large number of parallels for the 2005 season,
where the sea surface temperatures and the general overall conditions
are very similar, with one important difference and that is that they
are actually higher. In other words we are now in record conditions in
a lot of the area."
Jane Lubchenco, head NOAA administrator, agreed: "If this outlook holds
true, this season could be one of the more active on record.â€
Of course, there's still quite a bit of oil in the Gulf, both on the
surface and in massive underwater plumes. What the heck happens if a
hurricane or tropical storm were to pass over the oil-coated Gulf? It's
unchartered territory, but on his WunderBlog, meteorologist Jeff
Masters takes a stab:
On transport of oil and beaches:
The strong winds and powerful ocean currents that a hurricane's winds
drive will bring oil to large stretches of coast that otherwise would
not have gotten oil. This is my chief concern regarding a hurricane
moving through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. ... If a sandy beach is
already fouled by oil, a hurricane can help clean up the mess. However,
the situation is different along shores with marshlands, where the many
shoreline plants offer crevices and tangled roots for the oil to
accumulate in. A hurricane will help scour some of the oil out of
marshlands, but the majority of it will probably remain stuck. This is
also true of rocky beaches."On storm surge and oil:
One of the more unnerving prospects to consider if a hurricane hits the
oil spill is what the hurricane's storm surge might do with the
oil/dispersant mixture. The foul mix would ride inland on top of the
surge, potentially fouling residential areas and hundreds of square
miles of sensitive ecosystems with the toxic stew.On wind and oil:
We can anticipate that a hurricane passing over the oil spill will be
able to hurl oil and toxic dispersants many miles inland during
landfall. In regions where little rain falls, the concentrations of the
oil and dispersants may be a problem.Masters also notes that the oil
itself could have a warming effect on Gulf waters, which could further
strengthen a storm. It's really worth giving his whole post a look.
Also worth checking out (and a little less weather wonky than Masters)
is Chris Mooney's take on Slate.
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